Evaluating the likelihood of NBA Play-In teams causing upsets in the First Round

With the NBA regular season winding down, the spotlight is on the looming play-in tournament set to tip-off on April 16. This year, the league's exceptional depth means that even traditionally talented teams could find themselves battling it out in the play-in, a reality highlighted by the Miami Heat's surprising journey to the NBA Finals last season after edging past the Chicago Bulls in the play-in.

As we approach this year's postseason, the question arises: Could any of the borderline playoff teams replicate Miami's Cinderella story? Let's take an early look at some contenders like Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers.

- Chicago Bulls (31-34): Despite their efforts, the Bulls face an uphill battle against top contenders like the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, who have dominated them this season. While Chicago boasts talent and disciplined ball handling, their lack of offensive firepower may prove insurmountable against the East's elite.

- Indiana Pacers (37-29): The Pacers, with recent addition Pascal Siakam, could pose a challenge for higher-seeded teams like the Milwaukee Bucks or Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. Their potent offense, anchored by Tyrese Haliburton and bolstered by Siakam's defensive versatility, coupled with veteran coach Rick Carlisle's postseason experience, could spell trouble for any opponent.

- Miami Heat (35-29): Miami's postseason prowess is well-documented, and despite a lukewarm performance in the win column post-All-Star break, their playoff pedigree under Erik Spoelstra cannot be discounted. With a top-10 net rating and a roster built for postseason intensity, the Heat are primed for another potential first-round upset.

- Philadelphia 76ers (36-29): The Sixers' playoff prospects hinge on the availability of Joel Embiid, whose absence due to injury could significantly impact their chances. With Embiid, Philadelphia presents a formidable challenge for any top-seeded team; without him, their offensive struggles could see them bow out early.

- Golden State Warriors (34-30): Despite the brilliance of Stephen Curry, the Warriors face an uphill battle against Western Conference powerhouses. While they possess the potential to steal games on the strength of chemistry and coaching, a series win against the West's top teams remains a daunting task.

- Los Angeles Lakers (36-30): LeBron James's resurgence and a returning cast from injury could make the Lakers a formidable first-round opponent. While they might not have what it takes to overcome teams like the Denver Nuggets, they could certainly give lower-seeded contenders a run for their money.

- Sacramento Kings (37-27): The Kings' offensive prowess has diminished compared to last season, leaving them reliant on explosive performances to compete with the West's elite. However, their defensive shortcomings may prove too significant to overcome in a seven-game series.

- Dallas Mavericks (37-28): Led by the transcendent talent of Luka Doncic, the Mavericks possess the potential to cause upsets against higher-seeded teams. Doncic's stellar performances make Dallas a team no top seed wants to face, setting the stage for potential postseason surprises.